Each year I run 10 simulations of our league and average the results out to predict how things will finish in the MDBL. This year should be an interesting season as some of the usual contenders (Indianapolis and Winchester) have started to rebuild, allowing for some new comers to the playoffs (Somerset). The unfortunate part of the simulation this year is that the results were pretty much the same each year with the same four teams winning their division almost every year, and by a wide margin. The following are my predictions...
DamnYankee Division
Oak Ridges Posse (114-48) - The Posse consistently had the top rated offense led by a bunch of veterans and surprising consistently had one of the top two pitching staffs.
Lancaster Black Pelicans (97-65) - This team underachieves every year compared to my predictions due to inactive ownership and HAL managing games.
Beechurst Blues (83-79) - Similar the Black Pelicans, they should make the playoffs but probably will not due to inactivity.
Batavia Muckdogs (82-80) - If Joe can smell the playoffs then he will do something to get in there. Young core will be solid for years.
Cambridge Porkers (70-92) - Arroyo, Konerko and Young need some more support to get this team to .500
Boston Spiders (70-92) - Solid offense is unable to produce wins because of a horrible pitching staff.
FrigidClimate Division
Somerset Sun Devils (89-73) - New owner extremely active in offseason and earns his first division title.
Portland Sea Dogs (83-79) - Surprisingly Portland had a very good ERA, but the bats did not produce.
Purgatory Creek Superbas (81-81) - The young foundation is there, including a new owner not afraid to make a move to get better now.
Minneapolis Millers (70-92) - And the climb begins. Millers are getting ready to challenge for the division.
Indianapolis Clowns (68-94) - After years of dominating this division, the Clowns dumped a ton of guys and start the rebuild.
Mission Viejo Vigilantes (66-96) - New ownership needed to support some of the young talent (Hall, Baldelli, Rios)
BiCoastal Division
Fargo-Moorheard Twins (110-52) - The defending champs should make the finals for the third year in a row with a great pitching staff and good lineup.
NAFTA Prickly Pear Dealers (98-64) - The Pears have been able to make the playoffs before...now they have the team to start going after championships.
Winchester Cannons (76-86) - The best of a really bad remaining division. Funding issues caused the loss of ARod.
Connecticut Charter Oaks (72-90) - Oaks finish in fourth again, but with alot less wins and a much weaker team. Team has to improve the pitching staff badly.
Milwaukee Braves (63-99) - The Braves need some stars to get them up to the next level...maybe the minors can produce them.
Melbourne Beach Manatees (57-105) - Ownership is promoting big things, but it looks like a mirage.
TexasPlus Division
Bangor Blue Ox (102-60) - Blue Ox transformation is complete. They are now led by a very strong, young, infield.
Chicago Monarchs (92-70) - Corner position bats and Chris Carpenter lead the Monarchs to the playoffs.
Chatham Ironmen (91-71) - 90 wins and they miss the playoffs. If they only spent some of the $10 million in cash they have on free agents.
Fairfield Pioneers (82-80) - The hitting is still there, but the pitching drop off means no playoffs this year.
Eureka Tigers (81-81) - Injuries set the Tigers back this year. Age may force them to start a rebuild.
Red Deer Rampage (47-115) - Talking about rebuilds. Rampage are collecting youngsters, playing "unlimited" players and will lose a ton of games.
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3 comments:
The Clowns are much more optimistic then this prediction. The owner and GM made many moves in the off season, strengthening the team for the future, but the on field staff believe they still have a strong product and will compete. Look for a 3rd place finish, ahead of both the Supurbas and the Millers
Looks about right.
What's up with the terrible Spiders pitching staff? The Twins sent them an entire rotation and most of a bullpen just for Brandon Wood? I think they will surpass this projection.
No offense Ben but I predict that the Rampage will give a strong run at the all-time worst MDBL record of 40-122 held jointly by the Tempe Spiders (precurser to the FM Twins) and the Boston Spiders. Nothing wrong with losing if you have a plan and are willing to stick through the rough patches.
The Twins offense gets short-changed with a description of 'good'. They had the 5th best OPS and were closer to 1st than 10th....Like our chances of making it 3 out of 4!
Boobs!
The Superbas prefer the underdog role. Besides, we're not playing the Posse everyday; look at this soft division. We'll just keep getting better. The owner and GM says he has plans for in-season moves that will put the Superbas at the top of the division by fall.
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