After running 10 2007 MDBL simulations I was able to predict the offenses for each team in the MDBL. Leading the league with an .874 team OPS is the Oak Ridges Posse. The Posse have had the top offense in the MDBL the past two seasons, and a lineup of Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, Aramis Ramirez, Bobby Abreu and Derek Jeter should make them #1 again. Following the Posse in second place is the Lancaster Black Pelicans who had a team OPS of .853 and were led by the likes of David Ortiz, Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday and Joe Mauer. Rounding out the top three were the Bangor Blue Ox who are led by a great young infield of Justin Morneau, Robinson Cano, Hanley Ramirez and Ryan Zimmerman.
The following are the results for the whole league
1. Oak Ridges Posse - 0.874
2. Lancaster Black Pelicans - 0.853
3. Bangor Blue Ox - 0.852
4. NAFTA Prickly Pear Dealers - 0.846
5. Fargo-Moorhead Twins - 0.840
6. Connecticut Charter Oaks - 0.837
7. Chicago Monarchs - 0.829
8. Fairfield Pioneers - 0.820
9. Somerset Sun Devils - 0.819
10. Winchester Cannons - 0.794
11. Chatham Ironmen - 0.790
12. Boston Spiders - 0.787
13. Purgatory Creek Superbas - 0.787
14. Beechurst Blues - 0.785
15. Indianapolis Clowns - 0.780
16. Batavia Muckdogs - 0.776
17. Eureka Tigers - 0.769
18. Minneapolis Millers - 0.759
19. Mission Viejo Vigilantes - 0.752
20. Portland Sea Dogs - 0.752
21. Cambridge Porkers - 0.750
22. Melbourne Beach Manatees - 0.745
23. Milwaukee Braves - 0.738
24. Red Deer Rampage - 0.686
Sunday, April 1, 2007
MDBL Preview and Predictions
Each year I run 10 simulations of our league and average the results out to predict how things will finish in the MDBL. This year should be an interesting season as some of the usual contenders (Indianapolis and Winchester) have started to rebuild, allowing for some new comers to the playoffs (Somerset). The unfortunate part of the simulation this year is that the results were pretty much the same each year with the same four teams winning their division almost every year, and by a wide margin. The following are my predictions...
DamnYankee Division
Oak Ridges Posse (114-48) - The Posse consistently had the top rated offense led by a bunch of veterans and surprising consistently had one of the top two pitching staffs.
Lancaster Black Pelicans (97-65) - This team underachieves every year compared to my predictions due to inactive ownership and HAL managing games.
Beechurst Blues (83-79) - Similar the Black Pelicans, they should make the playoffs but probably will not due to inactivity.
Batavia Muckdogs (82-80) - If Joe can smell the playoffs then he will do something to get in there. Young core will be solid for years.
Cambridge Porkers (70-92) - Arroyo, Konerko and Young need some more support to get this team to .500
Boston Spiders (70-92) - Solid offense is unable to produce wins because of a horrible pitching staff.
FrigidClimate Division
Somerset Sun Devils (89-73) - New owner extremely active in offseason and earns his first division title.
Portland Sea Dogs (83-79) - Surprisingly Portland had a very good ERA, but the bats did not produce.
Purgatory Creek Superbas (81-81) - The young foundation is there, including a new owner not afraid to make a move to get better now.
Minneapolis Millers (70-92) - And the climb begins. Millers are getting ready to challenge for the division.
Indianapolis Clowns (68-94) - After years of dominating this division, the Clowns dumped a ton of guys and start the rebuild.
Mission Viejo Vigilantes (66-96) - New ownership needed to support some of the young talent (Hall, Baldelli, Rios)
BiCoastal Division
Fargo-Moorheard Twins (110-52) - The defending champs should make the finals for the third year in a row with a great pitching staff and good lineup.
NAFTA Prickly Pear Dealers (98-64) - The Pears have been able to make the playoffs before...now they have the team to start going after championships.
Winchester Cannons (76-86) - The best of a really bad remaining division. Funding issues caused the loss of ARod.
Connecticut Charter Oaks (72-90) - Oaks finish in fourth again, but with alot less wins and a much weaker team. Team has to improve the pitching staff badly.
Milwaukee Braves (63-99) - The Braves need some stars to get them up to the next level...maybe the minors can produce them.
Melbourne Beach Manatees (57-105) - Ownership is promoting big things, but it looks like a mirage.
TexasPlus Division
Bangor Blue Ox (102-60) - Blue Ox transformation is complete. They are now led by a very strong, young, infield.
Chicago Monarchs (92-70) - Corner position bats and Chris Carpenter lead the Monarchs to the playoffs.
Chatham Ironmen (91-71) - 90 wins and they miss the playoffs. If they only spent some of the $10 million in cash they have on free agents.
Fairfield Pioneers (82-80) - The hitting is still there, but the pitching drop off means no playoffs this year.
Eureka Tigers (81-81) - Injuries set the Tigers back this year. Age may force them to start a rebuild.
Red Deer Rampage (47-115) - Talking about rebuilds. Rampage are collecting youngsters, playing "unlimited" players and will lose a ton of games.
DamnYankee Division
Oak Ridges Posse (114-48) - The Posse consistently had the top rated offense led by a bunch of veterans and surprising consistently had one of the top two pitching staffs.
Lancaster Black Pelicans (97-65) - This team underachieves every year compared to my predictions due to inactive ownership and HAL managing games.
Beechurst Blues (83-79) - Similar the Black Pelicans, they should make the playoffs but probably will not due to inactivity.
Batavia Muckdogs (82-80) - If Joe can smell the playoffs then he will do something to get in there. Young core will be solid for years.
Cambridge Porkers (70-92) - Arroyo, Konerko and Young need some more support to get this team to .500
Boston Spiders (70-92) - Solid offense is unable to produce wins because of a horrible pitching staff.
FrigidClimate Division
Somerset Sun Devils (89-73) - New owner extremely active in offseason and earns his first division title.
Portland Sea Dogs (83-79) - Surprisingly Portland had a very good ERA, but the bats did not produce.
Purgatory Creek Superbas (81-81) - The young foundation is there, including a new owner not afraid to make a move to get better now.
Minneapolis Millers (70-92) - And the climb begins. Millers are getting ready to challenge for the division.
Indianapolis Clowns (68-94) - After years of dominating this division, the Clowns dumped a ton of guys and start the rebuild.
Mission Viejo Vigilantes (66-96) - New ownership needed to support some of the young talent (Hall, Baldelli, Rios)
BiCoastal Division
Fargo-Moorheard Twins (110-52) - The defending champs should make the finals for the third year in a row with a great pitching staff and good lineup.
NAFTA Prickly Pear Dealers (98-64) - The Pears have been able to make the playoffs before...now they have the team to start going after championships.
Winchester Cannons (76-86) - The best of a really bad remaining division. Funding issues caused the loss of ARod.
Connecticut Charter Oaks (72-90) - Oaks finish in fourth again, but with alot less wins and a much weaker team. Team has to improve the pitching staff badly.
Milwaukee Braves (63-99) - The Braves need some stars to get them up to the next level...maybe the minors can produce them.
Melbourne Beach Manatees (57-105) - Ownership is promoting big things, but it looks like a mirage.
TexasPlus Division
Bangor Blue Ox (102-60) - Blue Ox transformation is complete. They are now led by a very strong, young, infield.
Chicago Monarchs (92-70) - Corner position bats and Chris Carpenter lead the Monarchs to the playoffs.
Chatham Ironmen (91-71) - 90 wins and they miss the playoffs. If they only spent some of the $10 million in cash they have on free agents.
Fairfield Pioneers (82-80) - The hitting is still there, but the pitching drop off means no playoffs this year.
Eureka Tigers (81-81) - Injuries set the Tigers back this year. Age may force them to start a rebuild.
Red Deer Rampage (47-115) - Talking about rebuilds. Rampage are collecting youngsters, playing "unlimited" players and will lose a ton of games.
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